BEIJING — A U.S. official here told me he was “getting a little nervous about 2010” when it comes to Chinese-American relations. I’d say there’s plenty of cause for that. I’m not optimistic about the world’s most important relationship in the short term.

The Obama administration came in with a deeply held philosophical view about making the Chinese stakeholders, and partners, in an interconnected world. Human rights complaints were muted, the Dalai Lama put on hold, and President Obama swung into town in November with arms outstretched to the rising behemoth.

The Chinese were polite enough, if less so at the Copenhagen climate talks a month later, but they’re not buying this touchy-feely interconnection thing. When you’re sitting on sums north of $2 trillion in reserves, riding three decades of near double-digit growth, and just trucked past the United States to become the world’s largest auto market, nationalism trumps globalism.

Think of the headiest moments of U.S. expansion — the Gilded Age or the Roaring Twenties — to get some idea of Chinese swagger and possibility.

It’s been a rough two months since that November visit. China has snubbed Obama.

Top of Obama’s human rights list when he met President Hu Jintao was the case of Liu Xiaobo, the principal author of a pro-democracy manifesto. Liu’s since been sentenced, on Christmas Day, to 11 years in prison. Take that.

Top of Obama’s nonproliferation list was Iran and the need for a united front on its nuclear program. China has since said “sanctions themselves are not an end” as the United States tries to harness support for them. Take that, too.”安全工程师考试安全工程师考试试题安全工程师考试报名安全工程师考试时间安全工程师考试内容安全工程师考试试题安全工程师考试成绩查询法律知识:法律知识热点安全工程师法律知识热点法律知识热点辅导法律知识热点问题法律知识试题安全工程师法律知识试题法律知识试题及答案法律知识试题下载历年安全工程师法律知识试题法律知识模拟试题法律知识模拟试卷管理知识：管理知识测试安全工程师管理知识安全工程师管理知识试题安全工程师试题安全工程师题及答案安全工程师试题下载安全工程师模拟题安全工程师模拟试卷生产技术：安全工程师生产技术指导安全工程师生产技术技巧生产技术试题安全工程师生产技术试题安全工程师生产技术真题及答案生产技术模拟试题安全工程师生产技术模拟题案例：安全工程师案例案例成绩查询案例试题安全工程师案例试题安全工程师案例试题及答案安全工程师案例经验技巧安全工程师案例模拟试题

Top of Obama’s trade list was the need for China to allow its currency, the renminbi, to appreciate rather than pegging it at an artificially low rate that spurs Chinese exports and, in effect, keeps jobs in Guangzhou as it kills them in Ohio. But a basic rule in China is that it looks inward before it looks outward. Its cheap-currency job-hoarding is about Chinese social stability, which is Job One for Hu and his cohorts, so there’s no sign of any movement.

Take that, for good measure, Mr. President — and in a year with a U.S. mid-term election where disappearing jobs are going to haunt Obama and the Democrats.

Then there was Copenhagen, of course, where Prime Minister Wen Jiabao’s treatment of Obama left a bad taste in Washington; and the forced repatriation of Uighurs who’d fled to Cambodia from China, which infuriated Washington; and the execution of a U.K. citizen with mental problems, which dismayed Washington (and left British leaders seething). Well, you get the idea.

“Things are much tougher than I thought possible a couple of months ago,” William McCahill, a former U.S. diplomat who heads a Beijing research company, told me. “With the mid-terms and the Chinese inching toward their succession in 2012, a period when hard-line positions get staked, you can expect the rhetoric to pitch up.”

It already has. Since I arrived in China, newspapers have been awash in Chinese outrage at reports of the Obama administration’s approval of a sale by Lockheed Martin of advanced Patriot air defense missiles to Taiwan, the self-governing island that China views as a renegade province. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spoke of “severe consequences” from the sale, part of a $6.5 billion arms package for Taiwan approved under the Bush administration.

I have a double reaction to this Taiwan arms contract. On the one hand, Obama’s been stiffed, the United States is obliged under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 to provide arms of a defensive nature to Taiwan, and China responds better to resolve than all that interconnected globe stuff. On the other, come on! Relations between Taipei and Beijing have never been as good, you’re never ever going to get a Chinese buy-in to real cooperation as long as it views Washington as meddling with its core strategic interests in this way, and “one country, three systems” looks a thousand times more likely to me within the next half-century than a Taiwan war that would shred Chinese stability.

直肠癌直肠癌知识什么是直肠癌直肠癌病因得了直肠癌怎么办直肠癌治疗费用治疗（晚期）直肠癌需要多少钱直肠癌转移直肠癌晚期直肠癌晚期能活多久直肠癌晚期治疗费用直肠癌传染吗直肠癌能治好吗有效治愈直肠癌直肠癌治愈率晚期直肠癌的治疗偏方直肠癌症状直肠癌的症状直肠癌晚期症状直肠癌晚期的症状晚期直肠癌症状晚期直肠癌的症状直肠癌晚期的并发症直肠癌早期症状早期直肠癌的症状直肠癌常见的症状直肠癌临床表现直肠癌临床症状如何诊断直肠癌直肠癌的诊断方法大肠癌常用的检查方法直肠癌治疗直肠癌的治疗治疗直肠癌的方法直肠癌治疗药物治疗直肠癌的新药治疗直肠癌最好的医院治疗直肠癌的医院治疗直肠癌最好的偏方直肠癌治疗偏方治疗晚期直肠癌的偏方治疗直肠癌的中药治疗直肠癌的西药治疗直肠癌的中草药直肠癌康复护理直肠癌术后该吃什么直肠癌病人吃什么好直肠癌术后护理直肠癌吃什么直肠癌饮食直肠癌预防直肠癌的预防如何预防直肠癌结肠癌结肠癌知识什么是结肠癌结肠癌病因得了结肠癌怎么办结肠癌治疗费用结肠癌转移结肠癌晚期结肠癌晚期能活多久晚期结肠癌的治疗费用结肠癌传染吗结肠癌能治好吗有效治愈结肠癌结肠癌的治愈率晚期结肠癌的治疗偏方结肠癌症状结肠癌的症状结肠癌晚期症状结肠癌晚期的症状晚期结肠癌症状晚期结肠癌的症状中期结肠癌的症状结肠癌晚期的并发症结肠癌早期症状早期结肠癌的症状结肠癌常见症状结肠癌临床表现结肠癌临床症状如何诊断结肠癌结肠癌的诊断方法结肠癌症状结肠癌治疗结肠癌的治疗结肠癌的治疗方法治疗结肠癌的方法结肠癌治疗药物治疗结肠癌的新药治疗结肠癌最好的医院治疗结肠癌的医院治疗结肠癌最好的偏方治疗结肠癌偏方治疗晚期结肠癌的偏方治疗结肠癌的中药治疗结肠癌的西药治疗结肠癌的中草药结肠癌康复护理结肠癌术后该吃什么结肠癌病人吃什么好结肠癌术后护理结肠癌吃什么结肠癌饮食结肠癌预防结肠癌的预防如何预防结肠癌食道癌食道癌知识什么是食道癌食道癌病因得了食道癌怎么办食道癌治疗费用食道癌转移食道癌晚期食道癌晚期能活多久食道癌晚期的治疗费用食道癌传染吗食道癌能治好吗有效治愈食道癌食道癌治愈率结肠癌症状结肠癌的症状食道癌晚期症状食道癌晚期的症状晚期食道癌症状晚期食道癌的症状食道癌中期症状食道癌晚期的并发症食道癌早期症状早期食道癌的症状食道癌常见的症状食道癌临床表现食道癌临床症状如何诊断食道癌食道癌的诊断方法食道癌治疗食道癌的治疗食道癌的治疗方法治疗食道癌的方法食道癌治疗药物治疗食道癌的新药治疗食道癌最好的医院治疗食道癌的医院治疗食道癌最好的偏方治疗食道癌的偏方治疗晚期食道癌的偏方食道癌晚期治疗偏方治疗食道癌的中药治疗食道癌的西药治疗食道癌的中草药食道癌康复护理食道癌术后该吃什么食道癌患者吃什么好食道癌术后护理食道癌吃什么食道癌饮食食道癌预防食道癌的预防食道癌如何预防

Of these reactions, the latter is stronger because Obama is accepting a core antagonism of interest in the Chinese relationship even as he’s talked up cooperation. Perhaps that’s inevitable between the world’s superpower and its ultimate likely successor; but the Taipei deal guarantees it.

“The arms sales are stupid,” Chu Shulong, a political scientist often critical of the Chinese government, told me. “Yes, Taiwan and its democracy are important for your credibility in Asia, but what’s more important, that or the mainland? As long as America does this, it will be perceived as wanting to check China, divide China and challenge China’s fundamental national interests.”

key local king knowledge information ikn life better best kong kitchen data music more health hook land more music Kootenay

Kurt dog doctor donkey dozen lesson Boston book business Hannah henna Linda babe board Kootenay kentucky loop list length

lens anyone veer et kernel kooky km million may kid Keith

The painful condition of the United States and China is that they are codependent, through trade and debt, but antagonistic. As elsewhere, Obama has changed language but not reality. I see a 2010 of rising protectionism, suspended military dialogue, Iranian discord, human rights disappointments and wars of words.

It could be worse. I don’t see outright confrontation now or any time. China wouldn’t risk its rise with that.

The Dragon's Swagger

Partager cet article